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Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Almadex - El Cobre

We got some more drill results from El Cobre last week, and I've decided to use this project as the first to do an officially crap (tm) TAG resource guesstimate.

Summary


  • Small and low grade
    • ~101Ktonnes copper @ 0.19% Cu
    • ~640Koz gold @ 0.43 g/t Au

Let us quickly compare the market caps of a few favorite copper-gold exploration companies:

  • Almadex = CND$70.7M
  • Cordoba = CND$48.92
  • Regulus resources = CND$75.58
Regulus and Cordoba have decent project projects with resources:
  • Alacran = 53.5 Mt at 0.7% Cu and 0.37 g/t Au
  • Anta Kori = 290Mt @ 0.48% Cu and 0.36 g/t Au
The assays from the drilling at El Cobre just show that they have a few moderately wide, average grade zones surrounded by low grade dirt. I thought that I was missing something. So I brought everything into Leapfrog Geo to see how much gold and copper there is.


WARNING

These numbers could cause shock, amazement and cardiac arrest. Please sit down, breathe slowly before calling your broker...



Well, that is deeply unimpressive, but not unexpected.

In general the 'massive' intercepts were nothing special. So here is the latest 3D model (including holes 16 and 17) and the spiffy spreadsheet from here (link), so you can play with the numbers and call me a retard.

So,  Almadex is expensive, Regulus is cheap.

Background rubbish

This is a global 'resource' from all three mineralized areas (Norte, Porvenir and Encinal zones), and I used the 'split assay' data which back calculated the residual grade (i.e. outside of the narrower high grade intervals), to try an give a more accurate value.



Grades are also composited over 5m intervals.

Gold


Copper


I used the following attributes to calculate the resources. the important one for non-technical people is the base range (circled) - 200 - which basically means that Leapfrog Geo uses a 200m search radius to connect the grade shells, which, for a porphyry system, is a good approximation for inferred resources.

I also used a specific gravity of 2.7 tonnes/m3.

If you want the complete LF Geo project - flip me an e-mail (theangrygeologist@gmail.com) and I sent it to you.

10 comments:

  1. Hello AG, I hold AXDDF that I received from the spinout from AAU. I like the fact that my shares are up 4X-5X since end of 2015 but I don't chase stocks. I never could justify to add to the position.
    I also have TMQ which was a spinout from NG. Please take a look at TMQ and compare it with AXDDF. IMO, TMQ is very cheap in relation to AXDDF. Thank for all you do!!!

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  2. After your post, Newcrest invested nearly $20 million in Almadex, El Cobre. What did you miss in your analysis? Obviously, Newcrest sees great potential in El Cobre--a deposit worth $billions, perhaps?

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    Replies
    1. I have a post prepared on that, I couldn't see what the potential was based on the drilling so I've compiled the data and come up some numbers.
      I'll get it out on monday

      Delete
    2. Very interested in learning why you made this mistake with Almadex's El Cobre. We learn most from our mistakes, isn't that true? Best wishes, Almadex shareholder.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. it was a year after my post!! and some of the recent drilling at the Norte target has been quote good

      Delete
  3. May I suggest that you change your name and approach? Why not describe yourself as "The Thoughtful Geologist", and carefully consider the geology of a project before faulting it. Sometimes you raise doubts (as in Almadex & Evrim) without knowing all the facts. Sign me: Shareholder Almadex & Evrim

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    Replies
    1. Hello Anon,

      Since this post Almadex had completed a years worth of exploration, we've had a number of decent hits from the Norte target which has had the huge effect of increasing their market cap by $1.3M. Essentially northing.

      However, I am working on an updated post on El Cobre, which could be interesting.

      The reson for my posts and the reason I share my data in the form of Leapfrog views, is that people can look at the data and form their own opinion. At the moment, Evrim is a great story, and we've been a bit light of late for positive exploration stories, so in my opinion, I feel that the Cuale results, which were skewed by a small zone of ultra-high grade mineralization, could lead to a hangover in the medium term. If i'm wrong and they drill out a massive high-grade gold deposit, then I'll be happy to take the criticism. All want people to do is look beyond the flashy numbers and look at the results critically.

      But thank you for coming to the blog and feel free to criticize/comment/complain - it is what helps me focus and maybe one day, I'll get something correct....

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  4. Hello, AG. May peace be with you. I appreciate your humility. Please remember you have a following and therefore great responsibility. Your recent comments on Evrim temporarily tanked the stock. As an Evrim shareholder, I thought it outrageous. But that's the market! People can believe whatever. I bought more Evrim anyway. Best wishes . . .

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  5. Hi AG

    I am only a relatively new follower but like your critical mind and i am learning plenty. Would love to know your thoughts on the potential of STM AU ( if you are looking for positive exploration stories ) they have 4 very prospective porphyry targets in ecuador that they are set to drill soon , they have a previous hole that is 250m at .56 Au from surface and all other targets are from surface with some at 1.7% Cu and 3.4% Au. The team have previously found 2x $1b resources and now hunting their 3rd. The stock should be a lot of fun the next 12 months.

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