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Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Pretium - Brucejack Q3 Results

Pretium published their Q3 results yesterday (link), and as they are at a steady state in the Brucejack operations, why don't we compare the number to previous quarters.

Au Production

a miss is a miss
Production dropped by 18,700 ounces compared to Q2, 2018 (a 17% drop). This was because:

Au grade

Yup, you've guessed it, we see a corresponding drop in Au grades from 14.9 g/t Au in Q2, to 12.4 g/t Au in Q3. This will always be an issue in high-grade operations due to the nugget effect, where you expect to see +/- 20% changes in production, but over the long term these swings should balance out.

However, if Pretium continue to struggle to make the grade (this is 4 times out of 5 that they have missed), it will put pressure on their resource model.


Still great, nothing to worry about here

Mill Throughput

The mill has very slightly under performed, but again, not a significant issue.

So this is again another quarter where Brucejack hasn't hit the expected production outlined in the PEA, they were down 17%, but management is staying positive!

So, to hit that target they need to produce in Q4, 2018:

  • 107,359 to 127,359 ounces of gold by....
  • maintaining a head-grade between 14.4 g/t and 17 g/t Au

Thought for the day:
If Brucejack had met the production profile in the PEA (i.e. a 'perfect' operation), it would be producing ~120Koz a quarter. Since the start of the year, Brucejack has projected ~75,000 ounces less than predicted in the PEA.

I'll let you work out how much that is worth..

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Ivanoe - Makoko-loco

Ivanhoe have been finding massive amounts of copper in the DRC at Kamoa-Kakula, but they've just announced a new discovery (link) Makoko.

It was great that they included most of the drilling data in the press release, and from that I have been able to model the mineralization (Leapfrog Model here):

I've also used the data to come up with a resource guesstimate.

Not in the same scale as Kamoa, but a start.

Assumptions: These are based on the data used in the Kamoa PEA

Cut-off: 1% Cu

Specific Gravity: 2.8 to 2.9 depending on the Cu grades (the more Cu, the higher the SG)

Search Ranges: 

  • 800m (Kamoa PEA) but 
  • I've also included a 1600m range to match the 'limits' used in the various maps that are found on the Ivanhoe website.
You can clearly see that there is a core >4% Cu Zone that appears to be truncated by the Mafic intrusive, but, several wide-spaced holes (>500m apart) appear to show the >2.5% Cu mineralization extending to the SE.

Unfortunately, there appear to be some post-mineral mafic intrusions that appear to truncate the down-dip extension of the >3% Cu mineralization. The  good news is that the at the eastern and western limits of the drilling they are still intersection >2% Cu mineralization over moderate thicknesses (2-5m).

Mafic units in green - I'm assumed that they are approx. vertical cylinders, which is probably wrong 
It will be interesting to see if the Cu horizon continues beyond the intrusions, but if it does, it will be at ~700m depths. There have been a few holes drilled up-dip, but they have returned intervals grading <1% Cu.

Green Unit = Mafic intrusion; thin red unit = Cu bearing horizon.

However, I'm going to guess that my 'estimate' will be low. I've made a few annotations on the plan map above where there is a bit of "artistic license". You'll see how the influence of the low grade intercepts are being reduced to cause the smallest of ripples on the sea of high-grade mineralization that Ivanhoe want to show. It will be interesting if this 'interpretation' continues into the initial resource estimate or if the holes are treated a but more equally.

correction: it should read 800m DIAMETER around each DH